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How Accurate are Weather Forecasts Anyway?

June 6, 2018

9:00 - 9:30AM PT

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Presented by a collaboration of the SDG Decision Education Center and our academic partner, Texas Executive Education

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How you ever wondered how accurate forecasts regarding the chance of rain are? How can you even say a probabilistic forecast was wrong? After all, the weather forecaster said there was an 80% chance of rain—not a 100%. So, they will be right if it rains and if it doesn’t rain!


In this webinar. Prof. Eric Bickel (University of Texas at Austin) will discuss probabilistic forecasting and how we can judge whether such forecasts are “good” or “skillful”. He will present his detailed study of The Weather Channel’s (TWC’s) probabilistic precipitation forecasts. This work was featured in Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise. Prof. Bickel will explain how to measure the quality of a probabilistic forecast, summarize how good TWC is at making such forecasts, and even teach you how to correct TWC’s forecasts all on your own!

Eric Bickel
Dr. Eric Bickel is an SDG Fellow and an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin), where he is Director of the Graduate Program in Operations Research & Industrial Engineering, and Academic Director of the Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate (SDRM) Program. Dr. Bickel also holds courtesy appointments in the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering and the Energy and Earth Resources graduate program.

This webinar is brought to you by a collaboration with SDG's academic partner, Texas Executive Education at The University of Texas at Austin. Since 1955, Texas Executive Education has been providing businesses and professionals with the resources to lead, think strategically and manage change through its innovative, interactive and impactful programs.

Texas Executive Education is SDG's university partner in the Strategic Decision and Risk Management Certificate Program, a post-graduate curriculum for mid-career professionals that combines the academic and research depth of UT Austin's McCombs School of Business with SDG's real-world consulting experience. For more information on earning a certificate, visit SDRM at Texas Executive Education.

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