How you ever wondered how accurate forecasts regarding the chance of rain are? How can you even say a probabilistic forecast was wrong? After all, the weather forecaster said there was an 80% chance of rain—not a 100%. So, they will be right if it rains and if it doesn’t rain!
In this webinar. Prof. Eric Bickel (University of Texas at Austin) will discuss probabilistic forecasting and how we can judge whether such forecasts are “good” or “skillful”. He will present his detailed study of The Weather Channel’s (TWC’s) probabilistic precipitation forecasts. This work was featured in Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise. Prof. Bickel will explain how to measure the quality of a probabilistic forecast, summarize how good TWC is at making such forecasts, and even teach you how to correct TWC’s forecasts all on your own!